Week 16 of the NFL season brings the much-anticipated matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins, we delve into a unique analysis based on behavioral data. This clash, highlighted by contrasting team dynamics, could have huge implications on the playoff races in both conferences. In this in-depth behavior-based prediction at Footballbehavior.com, we utilize key behavioral data points to forecast the outcome of this high-stakes game. Below you will find the exclusive behavioral analytics that led to our Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction.
Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Sunday, December 24, 2023, 4:05 pm, est
- Where:
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Odds:
- Line: Dolphins -1.5
- O/U: 50
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- Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬
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Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Picks
Bets Placed:
- Dolphins Moneyline (-125)
Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Prediction: Battle of the Behaviors
Dolphins Offensive Mirage
The Miami Dolphins’ offense, often hailed as unstoppable, shows an 18% regression in their Scoring Behavior (SBx) rate, especially against stronger defenses. Despite their reputation, the Dolphins have struggled against average or above-average defenses, evidenced by only five performances above an SBx of 1. Those five teams had an average rank of 23.2 in score prevention behavior rate. Every other performance this season, the Dolphins had a SBx below 0.7, and every one of those defenses was ranked inside of the top 10, except for two. This glaring inconsistency could be pivotal against the Cowboys, who rank 4th in Score Prevention Behavior rate (SPBx).
Below is a chart with every one of the Dolphins scoring behavior performances, with the rank of the defense they played against listed:
Dallas Defense: A Juggernaut with a Caveat
Dallas’ defense, similarly to the Dolphins’ offense, exhibits susceptibility to the quality of their opponents. Their impressive SPBx against weaker teams contrasts starkly with less effective performances against stronger offenses. This variability poses an intriguing challenge against the Dolphins’ fluctuating offense. The Cowboys have played half their games in which they have held opponents under a 0.6 SPBx, and under 0.35 in five of those seven. The combined winning percentage of those seven teams is 0.285. In their other seven games they have surrendered an SPBx above 0.7, with five of those games being above 0.9 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. Those seven teams have a combined winning percentage of 0.525. The Dolphins have a winning percentage of 0.714.
Below is a chart with every one of the Cowboys score prevention behavior performances, with the combined winning percentage of their opponents grouped by their best and worst performances:
Breaking the Behavior Pattern
There’s a reason both of these teams saw a slide in our Week 16 NFL Power Rankings. This matchup could potentially disrupt existing behavioral trends for either team. However, should both teams perform at their geometric mean levels, the game’s outcome may hinge on the Cowboys’ offense versus the Dolphins’ defense. Miami’s defense shows a promising 13% week-to-week improvement in score prevention but remains inconsistent. Our projections suggest a tight scoring range for both teams, with the Cowboys expected to score between 17-24 points (geometric mean of 19.19) and the Dolphins between 17-24 points (geometric mean of 20.91). This slight edge to the Dolphins indicates a closely contested battle, potentially decided by time of possession. With 1.9 minutes of play unaccounted for in behavioral projections of ball control, control of the clock could be the deciding factor in this clash.
Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins: A Game of Margins
The Week 16 Cowboys vs Dolphins prediction is not just about the points on the scoreboard but also about understanding and analyzing the underlying behavioral patterns of each team. As both teams exhibit tendencies influenced by opponent quality and environmental factors, this game is poised to be not only a physical contest but also a strategic one, where adaptation and resilience could be key. The slightest edge in time of possession or a break in behavioral trends could tilt this evenly matched game in favor of either team.
- Projected Score (Average Across All Non-Outlier Outcomes)
- Cowboys 20, Dolphins 24 (W)
- Bets Placed
- Dolphins Moneyline
- Risk Report
- Most Likely Outlier: Cowboys Defense
- Proceed With Caution
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
