Week 14 Power Rankings: 49ers, Dolphins Leading The Way

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

Subscribers to our newsletter, or those who read our weekly primetime game analysis articles know the following, but we’ll explain here as well for all new comers:

• When we say behavioral trends, we are referring to celeration rate. This is a measurement of how fast a team is improving or regressing week to week in their performance behavior on both sides of the ball.

• Environmental control is measured by bounce rates. This is a measure of how much internal control a team has over it’s own performance, or how susceptible it is to external forces (quality of opponent, injuries, location, etc.)

• Behavioral Margin For Error is a measure of the strength of both units, offense and defense, in their scoring behavior rate and score prevention behavior rate. The larger the difference, the more room for error a team has for outlier events like turnovers, defensive/special teams scores, injuries, etc.

• The top 14 teams should be seen to be the 14 teams we mostly likely believe SHOULD be in the playoffs, regardless of division. In the event it is not evenly distributed between conferences, we will note which team(s) outside the top 14 would get in. 

The Week 14 Power Rankings

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings: 49ers Lead The Way

1. 49ers*
2. Ravens*
3. Dolphins*
4. Cowboys*
5. Bills**
6. Lions*
7. Eagles**
8. Rams**
9. Texans*
10. Packers**
11. Chiefs*
12. Colts**
13. Broncos**
14. Vikings
15. Jaguars
16. Seahawks
17. Browns
18. Cardinals
19. Chargers
20. Falcons*
21. Raiders
22. Steelers
23. Titans
24. Buccaneers
25. Jets
26. Saints
27. Bears
28. Patriots
29. Bengals
30. Commanders
31. Giants
32. Panthers

* Denotes A Projected Division Winner As Of Week 14

**Denotes A Projected Wild Card Team As Of Week 14

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings Criteria: Margin For Error

This is the heaviest weighted piece of our Power Rankings criteria. The below chart shows us where each team in the NFL is based on the geometric mean of their Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) and their Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx). Goes without saying you want to score more points per minute than you give up per minute. The teams that do that with the greatest margin are the likeliest to withstand outlier events from their opponents.

How To Read The Chart

You Want To Be In The Bottom Right Quadrant

• Bottom Right: Above average scoring behavior, above average score prevention behavior

• Top Left: Below average scoring behavior, below average score prevention behavior

• Top Right: Above average scoring behavior, below average score prevention behavior

• Bottom Left: Below average scoring behavior, above average score prevention behavior.

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings: Margin For Error Chart

What Is It Telling Us?

• Teams in the Bottom Right have a combined winning % of .611. Every team in that quadrant is .500 or better

  • SF

  • MIA

  • BUF

  • BAL

  • DEN

  • KC

  • HOU

  • GB

  • MIN

• Teams in the Top Left have a combined winning % of 0.3332. Every team is 0.500 or worse

  • TEN

  • NO

  • CIN

  • CHI

  • CAR

• Teams in the Top Right have a combined winning % of 0.5549, showing if one of your units is to be below average, it better not be your offense

  • WASH

  • DET

  • DAL

  • PHI

  • LAR

  • IND

  • SEA

  • JAX

  • ARZ

  • LAC

• Teams in the Bottom Left have a combined winning % of 0.416, showing that no matter how elite your defense is, if you can’t score points you have no chance

  • TB

  • CLE

  • ATL

  • LV

  • PIT

  • NYG

  • NYJ

  • NE

• If there is an over-performing outlier team in one of the quadrants, it is the assumption that their win-loss record has likely benefitted from outliers and COULD be susceptible to a late season slide, or early playoff exit.

  • DET

  • PHI

  • CLE

  • DAL

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings Criteria: Environmental Control Chart

This chart indicates to us which teams have strong internal control over their performances, for better or worse. A low bounce rate tells us that this team is less susceptible to the behavior of their opponent, and if they succeed or fail, it is likely to be because of their own behavior.

How To Read The Chart

You Want To Be In The Bottom Left Quadrant

• Bottom Left: Strong internal control for both units

• Top Right: Weak internal control for both units

• Top Left: Strong internal control on offense, Weak internal control on defense

• Bottom Right: Strong internal control on defense, weak internal control on offense

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings: Environmental Control Chart

What Is It Telling Us?

• Teams in the Bottom Left have a combined winning % of 0.541.

  • The worst of those teams (Vegas) already fired their coach for a consistently bad performance, making a needed change to the environment

  • Every other team is in the playoff hunt, and/or has improved their performance over the course of the season to enter the playoff hunt.

    • KC

    • BAL

    • LAR

    • GB

    • DEN

    • NO

    • LV

• Teams in the top right have a combined winning % of 0.379.

  • Many of these teams have been effected by many external factors (injuries, coaching changes) OR have existing coaching situations where the coaching isn’t as effective, making them susceptible to their opponents behavior.

    • CLE (Defensive Coaching not matching talent)

    • NE (QB changes, no offensive identity)

    • NYG (QB injuries, O-line injuries, no adaptability)

    • SEA (Talent is carrying the coaching)

    • CAR (Coaching Change, Rookie QB)

    • LAC (Defensive Injuries, Erratic Offense)

    • NYJ (QB injury, Offensive Line Injuries, No growth)

    • TB (Poor Coaching)

    • IND (QB injury, Lack Of Defensive Consistency From Holdover Coach)

• Teams in the Top Left have a combined winning % of 0.510. These teams are mostly thriving on offensive consistency, but defensive inconsistency can still hurt them. One Team is an outlier.

  • SF (Dominant Offense, Defensive outliers have been of the dominating variety, meaning they’re either very good or dominant. Outlier team)

  • DAL (Defensive performance is very opponent dependent)

  • CHI (offense is consistently bad, defense has had many ups and downs. Coaching has been. real problem.)

  • MIN (New DC. Performance improvement, but erratic)

  • ARZ (New DC paired with a mostly bad offense)

  • BUF (New DC, Defensive injuries)

• Teams in the Bottom Right have a combined winning % of 0.569. These teams are all middle of the pack teams who either have a very strong unit on one side of the ball, and have benefitted form outliers on the other.

  • HOU

  • JAX

  • DET

  • TEN

  • ATL

  • PIT

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings: What Does It All Mean?

There are several big takeaways for us from these two charts:

1. The 49ers are far and away the best team in the NFL when healthy. It’s something w have been writing in here for weeks in their behavior profiles, but these charts really illustrate it. The one blemish (SPBx bounce rate) is actually a strength when you consider their outliers have all been of the dominant variety.

2. The Cowboys and Eagles are susceptible to early playoff exits should they get the wrong opponent. Both defenses are struggling with consistency, and with performance against top tier opponents, the type you play in the playoffs. Dallas is more capable of overcoming that with the strength of their offense, as of now. Something to monitor.

3. The Dolphins performance is elite on both sides of the ball, but their inconsistency, especially on offense, is something to be aware of. They have been held in check against good defenses for the most part, and that could hurt them in the postseason. But man, when they’re on, they’re unstoppable.

4. Houston, The Rams, and Green Bay have all earned their way into the playoff hunt and these charts show it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone monitoring their behavior. All three have positive behavioral trends I their performance behavior, above average performance behavior on both units, and strong internal control on both units, with Houston’s offense the lone exception, though they are trending in the right direction.