Black Friday NFL Prediction, Picks: Dolphins vs. Jets

In the first ever Black Friday NFL prediction from us at Football Behavior, we give you all of our picks for the Dolphins vs. Jets matchup. How the Dolphins offense behaves seems to be really dependent upon who it is they’re playing as you’ll see in our behavior profile. As for the Jets, who plays quarterback may not matter at all if they can’t help the defense stay off of the field. Every pick and a full behavioral analysis below!

Black Friday NFL Prediction: What To Know

• When:
  • Friday, November 24th 3:00 pm, est 
• Where:
  • MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
• Odds:
  • Jets +360
  • Dolphins -480
• What To Do:
  • Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬,
  • Our insights have led to a 68% hit rate and a profit of 72+ units and counting in 2023 
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Dolphins vs. Jets: Black Friday NFL Picks

Bets Placed:

• Jets +10.5 (-130)
• Dolphins Alt UNDER 24.5 (-115)
• Game Alt UNDER 42.5 (-160)
• Teaser (+170)
  • Jets +10.5
  • Game UNDER 42.5
• Just For Fun SGP (+2100)

(Win or Lose Will NOT Count Towards FBx Model Stats)

• • Jets +9.5
  • Tagovailoa UNDER 249.5 Passing Yards
  • UNDER 43.5
  • Tyreek Hill UNDER 75.5 Receiving Yards
  • Breece Hall to Score TD
  • Tagovailoa UNDER 37.5 Longest Passing Completion

Dolphins vs. Jets: Black Friday NFL Picks

Our Dolphins vs. Jets Black Friday NFL prediction examines the curious case of the Dolphins offense entering struggle city whenever they face a team with a winning record OR a defense in the top half of the league in score prevention behavior. 60% of their games have been against teams in one of those two categories. This chart shows that their worst performances have come against those teams, combined with a week to week 35% regression this season. 

Dolphins vs. Jets: Black Friday NFL Prediction

They are 3-3 in those games, losing to every team with a winning record, with an average scoring behavior rate (SBx) of 0.633 points scored per minute of possession time. They have an average SBx of a whopping 1.4 in their other four games, where it’s becoming clear they were bullying bad teams. That’s a big 55% difference. 

The Jets of course have a losing record, but will be the best defense the Fins have faced this season. The issue for them, is that likely won’t be enough to steal the victory, even if it is enough to keep it closer than most think. The offense just simply isn’t strong enough to help the defense stay off of the field. Zach Wilson has been benched for Tim Boyle, but honestly, how much worse can it get? 

This Chart Shows that The Jets have a scoring behavior with a geometric mean under 0.45 points per minute of possession time. Only the Panthers and Giants are worse. Enter Tim Boyle. On top of that, they are regressing week to week at 32%. 

Black Friday NFL Prediction: Dolphins vs. Jets

Dolphins vs. Jets Black Friday NFL Pick

This game will come down to time of possession and defense. For the Jets to have any real shot in this game, they must hold on to the ball on offense and help the defense stay off of the field. While the defense should be able to limit Miami’s scoring behavior, give them enough opportunity, and they’ll find the end zone. Just ask Vegas.