Monday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 11: Eagles vs. Chiefs

Our Monday Night Football prediction for the Eagles vs. Chiefs notes that these are not the same two teams from last year’s Super Bowl. Our exclusive behavioral analysis reveals that the winner of this one will win a low-scoring, time of possession-centered game, where defense will matter. Here is our Monday Night Football Pick, and every bet we have personally placed.

Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

• When:
  • Monday, November 20th, 8:15 pm, est 
• Where:
  • GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri 
• Odds:
  • Eagles +122
  • Chiefs -145
• What To Do:
  • Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬,
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Eagles vs. Chiefs: Monday Night Football Picks

Bets Placed:

• Chiefs ML (-145)
• Chiefs Alt. OVER 20.5 (-214)
• Eagles Alt. UNDER 24.5 (-204)
• Game Alt. OVER 40 (-244)
• Eagles Alt Sprad +6.5 (-214)
• Teaser (+138, 1/2 Unit Bet): 
  • Eagles +5.5
  • OVER 41.5
• Teaser (+161, 1/2 Unit Bet)
  • Chiefs ML
  • OVER 41.5

Monday Night Football Picks: FBx Bets Placed

The Football Behavior Monday Night Football prediction for the Week 11 Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup is based on one simple fact: these are NOT the same two teams who met in the Super Bowl last February. Last year, these two teams finished ranked numbers one and two in scoring behavior rate in the entire league. The number one team beat the number two team in the Super Bowl when the Chiefs won a nail biting, high scoring, classic. 

This year, these two teams are behaving much differently. Figure 1.1 shows the Eagles having regressed 17% through 10 weeks from their mark a year ago, as seen by the placement of the orange lines on the chart. For scoring behavior, moving down the chart is bad, as that indicates less points per minute of possession time. Environment matters, and adjusting to a new play caller with Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen taking over the Colts, takes time. 

Monday Night Football Prediction: Eagles Offensive Regression

The Chiefs are also going through an offensive regression. Figure 1.2 shows the Chiefs scoring behavior having regressed 23.5% from last year, when they ranked number one in the NFL. Their environment has radically changed as well, with an almost brand new wide receiver room for Patrick Mahomes to work with. Not only does it take time to build chemistry with new players, but they are young players who they themselves need individual growth and development. 

Monday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs Offense Regressing

Perhaps the biggest, and even more important, difference for these two teams is their defense, and where we see the edge in our Monday Night Football prediction. Paired with their number two scoring behavior offense, the Eagles defense was also elite last year, though we noted they were probably overrated when they played top 10 scoring behavior offenses, evidenced by the Super Bowl. This year, their offense has regressed by 26% in score prevention behavior, shown by the orange lines in Figure 2.1.

Remember for score PREVENTION behavior, up the chart is BAD, down the chart is GOOD.

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Eagles Defensive Regression

Unlike the Eagles, who had an environmental change on that side of the ball with Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon taking over as head coach of the Cardinals, The Chiefs and coach Spags have seen a 26% improvement year over year in their score prevention behavior. Their defense is an elite unit and has been the defining variable helping them win, while the offense finds its footing. The turnaround may just be the key that swings this game

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Chiefs Defensive Improvement

Eagles vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football Pick

This game will come down to time of possession and defense. Both offenses are seeing growth in their time of possession from a year ago with the Eagles possessing it for an average of 9% longer and the Chiefs possessing it for an average of 2% longer. On defense, in addition to score prevention behavior improvement, the Chiefs defense is getting the ball back to their offense 4% faster from a year ago, while the Eagles defense is getting their offense the ball 9% faster this year.

Both teams rely on time of possession. The one who wins it, will win the game in our Monday Night Football prediction.