Monday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 10: Broncos vs. Bills

Our Monday Night Football prediction for the Broncos vs. Bills sees a potential upset as the most likely scenario. The key behaviors to focus on is the Broncos better-than-talked-about defense, and the Bills slightly declining upset. If that goes according to plan, look for the Broncos defense to play a ball control game. If that happens, we should hit all of our Monday Night Football picks, found below. 

 

Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

• When:
  • Monday, November 13th, 8:15 pm, est
• Where:
  • Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• Odds:
  • Broncos +278
  • Bills -355
• What To Do:
  • Take full advantage of our exclusive NFL analysis, backed by the analysis of Human Behavior.
  • Our insights have led to a 68% hit rate over the last two seasons, and a profit of 60+ units, and counting, in 2023. 

Broncos vs. Bills: Monday Night Football Picks

 

Bets Placed:

• Broncos ML (1/2 Unit only)
• Broncos Alt Spread +10.5
• Game Alt. UNDER 50.5
• Game Alt. UNDER 53.5
• Broncos Alt. OVER 16.5
• Bills Alt. UNDER 30.5
• Teaser
  • Broncos Alt. Spread +10.5
  • Game UNDER 50.5

 

Broncos vs. Bills: Monday Night Football Picks

Broncos vs. Bills: Monday Night Football Picks

 

 

Our Monday Night Football prediction forecasts a closer than expected game in the Broncos vs. Bills matchup in Buffalo. One of the key reasons why is the Broncos defense taking on the Bills offense. Much maligned since giving up 56 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, people have missed the steady and dramatic improvement the unit has made in the weeks since.

 

 

Week to week they have improved 63% over their previous five games, shown by the black trend line on the graph below. That includes allowing 14 points per game to the Kansas City Chiefs across two games in three weeks, inclusive of their most recent.

 

Following their current trend and risk variability profile, across all environments they are on track to give up only 18 points this week. For a Bills offense that scored just 18 points a week ago, and has a median score of just 19 points the last four weeks, that’s not great news. However, a trend that steep is not sustainable and will level out at some point. The question is when, and by how much? 

 

 

Conversely, for the Bills offense, they have been heading in the other direction. Remember for a defense, on the chart above you want to see trend lines going down, as that means less points per minute surrendered.

 

 

But, for an offense you want that trend line going up. For the Bills, it is going down, at an outlier-adjusted rate of 15% week to week. The two outliers the offense has had have both been an SBx under 0.5 points per minute of possession time, which would make those numbers even worse.

 

So, what we have learned about the Bills behavior on offense is that, operating at baseline conditions, they are regressing slightly by 15% week to week. BUT, if they are going to have an outlier performance it is most likely going to be of the negative variety. 

 

 

Not a great behavioral pattern going up against a defense that is over-performing at the current moment. 

 

 

As for the other match up in this game, to pull off the upset the Broncos offense is going to need to over perform. They will most likely need to hit a 0.7 SBx in order to win, but they’ll need to hit that while winning the time of possession, something that has been a struggle for them.

 

 

 

In their last two wins however, they possessed the ball for over 28 minutes, and specifically against the Chiefs, they possessed the ball for 33 minutes. That will need to be the formula for success in this one going up against a Bills defense that has regressed 12% week to week, adjusted for outliers (Week 7 vs. Patriots), which if included would make the regression worse.

 

Broncos vs. Bills Monday Night Football Pick

 

The Football Behavior Monday Night Football prediction for the Week 10 Broncos vs. Bills matchup thinks the behavioral focus is the Broncos defense vs. the Bills offense. The Broncos defense is trending in the right direction, but an unsustainable pace.

 

 

 

You have to be worried about an outlier. The Bills offense is trending in the wrong direction at a very sustainable pace. Do the Broncos have one more elite defensive performance in them? 

 

On the other side of the ball, can the Broncos possess the ball long enough to hit 0.7 SBx? The answer to that will likely be the final cherry on top in determining the winner of this one.