Our Thursday Night Football prediction for the Panthers vs. Bears Week 10 matchup wonders if it actually matters who starts at quarterback for Chicago? That question plays heavily on our Thursday Night Football picks. Below is every bet we placed, along with data and charts showing how we got there.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, November 9th, 8:15 pm, est
- Where:
- Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
- Odds:
- Panthers +150
- Bears -178
Panthers vs. Bears: Thursday Night Football Picks
Bets Placed:
- Bears Alt. Total OVER 18.5 Points
- Panthers Alt. Total UNDER 20.5 Points
- Teaser
- Bears Alt. Spread -2 (What Is An Alternate Spread?)
- Alt. Total UNDER 43.5 Points
Our Thursday Night Football prediction starts and ends with fundamental truth: it probably doesn’t matter who the starting quarterback for the Bears is. This isn’t to say Justin Fields shouldn’t be reinstalled as the starter when he’s ready, perhaps even tonight. It just means that this season he has not been an outlier-type player for the Bears. This means as an individual, his presence simply hasn’t altered the destiny, good or bad, in their games.
In Field’s five starts as quarterback, the Bears had an average SBx of 0.568 points scored per minute of possession time. With Tyler Bagent as quarterback for three starts, that has dropped by only 2% to 0.554. The orange lines on this chart show that to its barely even noticeable to the naked eye.
In Fact, the area that is noticeable to the naked eye, is the Bears seem to be much more consistent, or predictable, with Tyler Beignet as QB. In fact, they are 28.5% more consistent week to week through his three starts than they were through Fields’ five starts. They haven’t dramatically improved their performance, but from a betting perspective, the dramatic increase in consistency is welcomed. So the only thing that “matters” as to which one starts on Thursday, is how much risk is really at play in relying on the projected outcome.
The Panthers, with their young quarterback, had been the epitome of inconsistent. That is to be expected with a rookie quarterback. Through their first four games, the Panthers offense had a bounce rate of x4.3. This means their score outcome could be a multiple of 4.3 in either direction of their projected score. That’s not a team you feel confident betting on. However, something has happened over their last three games.
On the chart above, the closer the green lines are to one another, the more consistent the team is. We call that the bounce envelope, which is explained in our glossary of terms. Over their last three games they have been 72% more consistent on a week to week basis than they were over their firs four games, with a bounce rate of just x1.2.
For Panthers fans, the issue is that while they’ve been super consistent in those three games, their performance hasn’t been good, with an average SBx of just 0.454 points scored per minute of possession time. For sports bettors, however, that bounce rate makes them attractive to bet on.
Panthers vs. Bears: Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF pick for the Week 10 Panthers vs. Bears matchup is a low scoring game where two defenses that were historically bad, seem to be improving. They are going up against two underperforming offenses with lots of question marks. That said, there is one team who comes out a clear winner.
Panthers vs. Bears TNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- Panthers 16 | Bears 22
- Bets Placed
- Bears Alt. Total OVER 18.5 Points
- Panthers Alt. Total UNDER 20.5 Points
- Teaser
- Bears Alt. Spread -2
- Alt. Total UNDER 43.5 Points
- Risk Report
- 24% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Proceed With Caution
-
- Most Likely Outlier: Panthers Offense
**All Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
