Our Raiders vs. Lions Monday Night Football prediction focuses on the consistency of the Raiders low scoring offense, and the improvement of their defense going up against a volatile Lions offense. We took alternate UNDERs in this one. Here are all of the bets we placed, and why, for our Monday Night Football picks.
Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday, October 30th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
- Odds:
- Raiders +278
- Lions -355
Raiders vs. Lions: Alternate Spreads
Given the Football Behavior Prediction model’s ability to not only give us final score projections, but also a range of outcomes, alternate spread bets are big part of our portfolio. Here are the Alternate Spread bets we placed for this Monday Night Football prediction:
Raiders vs. Lions: Lions Alternate Spread -3.5
Raiders vs. Lions: Raiders Alternate Spread +13.5
- Raiders Alt. Spread +13.5
- Lions Alt. Spread -3.5
We believe the Lions will come out on top in this matchup, but by how much is in question. We think the Raiders could actually cover the set 7.5 point spread. But we have decided to limit our risk a bit by pushing that out to +13.5, which would net us a 42% ROI if that hits.
Likewise, we don’t think the Lions will cover the 7.5 spread, but we do think they will win by more than a field goal. Thus the -3.5 spread. That bet would net us a 49% return on investment. We have also given ourselves a nine point margin for error. The Lions can win by anywhere from 4 points to 13 points, and we hit both bets with a 45% net return.
*All terms, and why they matter, can be found in our glossary of terms
Raiders vs. Lions: Alternate Totals
Likewise, with final score projections, we can reasonably predict what the totals for the game, and each team, have a good possibility to be. Here are the alternate totals we have placed for this Raiders vs. Lions Monday Night Football prediction:
Monday Night Football Prediction: Game Goes UNDER 51 Points
Monday Night Football Prediction: Lions Go Under 31 Points
Monday Night Football Prediction: Raiders Go Under 23 Points
- Total UNDER 50.5 Points
- Lions UNDER 30.5 Points
- Raiders UNDER 22.5 Points
The Raiders have been the most consistent offense in the NFL this season with an x1.3 bounce rate. Unfortunately for them, its been consistently poor. A flat celeration line, with an x1.3 bounce rate, they are a safe bet to score low with the time they have the ball.
Raiders vs. Lions: Raiders Offense Consistently Bad
The Lions on the other hand have been much more inconsistent. They have an x2.3 bounce rate, and that’s with us removing last week’s six point performance as an assumed outlier (for now). Add in the Raiders defense, which has been much improved the last three weeks, we find it unlikely they hit 30 points in this one. Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby has been a one man wrecking crew.
We project them across all environments to score at pace of 0.85 points per minute of possession time. In the Raiders game day environment, it’s even lower: An SBx of 0.71.
Raiders vs. Lions Monday Night Football Pick
Monday Night Football Prediction: Lions Beat Raiders
The Football Behavior MNF prediction for Week 8 assumes an UNDER correlation. Raiders offense has been nothing but consistent as a low scoring team. The Lions defense has certainly struggled, but likely not enough to produce an extreme outlier from Vegas.
The Lions offense has fallen off a bit the last two weeks. We don’t see them getting to the heights of their 42 point performance against the Panthers, but mid to high 20’s as they control the clock in a game suited to head coach Dan Campbell’s philosophy.
Raiders vs. Lions MNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- Raiders 18, Lions 24
- Straight Bets Placed
- Raiders Alt Spread +13.5
- Lions Alt Spread -3.5
- Alt. Total UNDER 50.5
- Lions Alt Total UNDER 30.5
- Raiders Alt Total UNDER 22.5
- Risk Report
-
- 18% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Relatively Safe Bet
- Most Likely Outlier: Lions Offense. They have an x2.3 bounce rate and a 43% outlier rate in their seven games
**All Odds provided by Caesars (Last Updated Sunday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
