Ultimately, coaches want to see their teams become more efficient at scoring points as the season goes on. With behavior science we can measure that improvement for offenses each and every week. In fact, Football Behavior does this at both the overall team level with its proprietary “Football Improvement Index”, as well as focusing on each side of the ball, offense and defense. In this piece, we will examine the top five NFL offenses who improved the most during the 2022 season.
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Here are the top five NFL offenses who improved the most over the course of the 2022 NFL season, and what it means for them heading into 2023.
Top Five NFL Offenses Who Improved The Most In 2022
Key for reading the charts:
- Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) Average
- Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries (everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition)
- Solid Black Line: Celeration trend
5. Indianapolis Colts
- 2022 Offensive Improvement: 13%
- Week over week, the Colts offense saw a 13% improvement in SBx.
- The eight games prior to firing Frank Reich saw an average SBx of 0.335
- Over the nine games following the replacement of Reich with Jeff Saturday, their SBx improved by 47% to 0.492.
- Week over week, the Colts offense saw a 13% improvement in SBx.
- 2023 Outlook: Brand new coaching staff and offensive system for 2023, likely led by rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Expect growing pains along the learning curve, but the stability should provide continued improvement from the league basement of offensive performance behavior. That said, do not expect them to be one of the top five NFL offenses in 2023.
4. Green Bay Packers
- 2022 Offensive Improvement: 13%
- Week over week, the Packers saw a 13.3% improvement in SBx.
- After starting the season wildly inconsistent through the first nine games, they improved their stabilization by 40%.
- Through the first nine games, their bounce rate was x3.2. Four of those games were below 0.5 points per minute of possession time. Five were 0.6 or better.
- Their final eight games saw them stabilize with a bounce rate of x2.7, and every game they scored above 0.5 points per minute of possession time.
- 2023 Outlook: The Packers will have a major environmental change in 2023 as they transition from quarterback Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Love has not gotten much playing time and it is expected to see the offense take a step back, at least through the early parts of 2023. However starting at the bottom allows for them to perhaps be one of the top five NFL offenses in improvement over 2023.
3. Denver Broncos
- 2022 Offensive Improvement: 14%
- Week over week, the Broncos saw a 14% improvement in SBx.
- After a steady performance deterioration through the first 12 games of the season, the combination of Russel Wilson getting removed from the 12/11/2022 game against the Chiefs, and the firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett seemed to spark a massive improvement, in both Wilson and the offense.
- Prior to the 12/11/2022 game against the Chiefs, the Broncos had only a 0.448 SBx through 12 games.
- The final five weeks so a whopping 75% improvement to a 0.784 SBx.
- 2023 Outlook: The Broncos have a new head coach in Sean Payton for 2023. If he can figure out what changed in Wilson over the final five weeks of 2022 and continue to build, the Broncos offense could quickly go from a joke to mediocre.
2. Dallas Cowboys
- 2022 Offensive Improvement: 19%
- Week over week, the Cowboys saw a 19% improvement in SBx.
- The Cowboys were greatly aided by the return of Dak Prescott following his Week 1 injury.
- In the five games started by Cooper Rush, the Cowboys had a 0.731 SBx.
- In the 11 games to close the regular season started by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys had a 0.977 SBx, which was a 34% improvement.
- 2023 Outlook: The Cowboys looked poised for another postseason run. Luckily the Prescott injury didn’t lead to a significant number of losses early in the season. With a fully healthy Prescott, the Cowboys should still be considered a lethal offense that may be even more explosive with Tony Pollard having a bigger role.
1. San Francisco 49ers
- 2022 Offensive Improvement: 20%
- Week over week, the 49ers saw a 20% improvement in SBx.
- Overcoming each quarterback injury with better replacement quarterback play was key.
- In Trey Lance’s lone game that he started and finished, the 49ers lost and he was abysmal, throwing for less than 200 yards and zero touchdowns. The offense had a 0.31 SBx.
- Jimmy Garappolo doubled that SBx in his five starts prior to Christian McCaffery being traded for, with a 0.63 SBx.
- Christian McCaffery took the offense to another level with a 13% SBx improvement in his six starts alongside Jimmy Garappolo, to 0.709 SBx.
- Brock Purdy undoubtedly added another level once he replaced Garappolo. The offense took a whopping 40% leap in SBx improvement to 0.99.
- 2023 Outlook: It is wild that Kyle Shanahan did not win Coach of the Year for 2022. Every obstacle placed in their path, the 49ers offense came out better on the other side of it. A sign of great coaching is the ability improve as the season goes on. There is no surprise that this team was one of the top five NFL offenses who improved the most in 2022.
- As long as he is there, there is no reason to expect a substantial deterioration. Brock Purdy is likely to come back and start, and assuming full health, look to pick up where they left off.
Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings
- 50% of the NFL teams ranked in the top 10 made the playoffs
- 50% of the NFL teams ranked in the top 10 were impacted by changes at the quarterback position
- 50% of all NFL teams ranked saw offensive improvement throughout 2022
- 10 of those teams had a winning record
- 8 of those teams made the playoffs
Reminder, this is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the Free Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more.
What Does It All Mean?
In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or deteriorating. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration.
Once we know the rate of improvement, or deterioration, we can begin to tease out the causes for those rates. Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.
Why Is This Valuable?
This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:
- How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
- How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
- How a trend could impact the point spread
- How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend
With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit). To maximize this information, upgrade to the Pigeon Picks Pass!