With behavior science we can measure the rate of improvement for NFL teams across an NFL season. Football Behavior does this at both the overall team level with its proprietary “Football Improvement Index”, as well as focusing on each side of the ball, offense and defense. Here are the top five NFL defenses that improved the most across 2022, and whether or not that trend could continue into 2023.
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Top Five NFL Defenses Who Improved The Most During 2022
Key for reading the charts:
- Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) Average
- Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries (everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition)
- Solid Black Line: Celeration trend
5. Los Angeles Chargers
- 2022 Defensive Improvement: 13%
- Week over week, the Chargers defense got better by 13% in SPBx.
- The bye week seemingly made a difference.
- Prior to the bye week, the defense was actually getting worse by 12% week over week. They had an average SPBx of 0.848.
- After the bye week, the defense got better by 9% week over week. They had an average SPBx of 0.611, an improvement of 28%.
- 2023 Outlook: The Chargers defense was a pretty big liability in the beginning of 2022. Head coach Brandon Staley is supposed to specialize on that side of the ball. They went 4-3 in those games. They need to come out in 2023 how they finished in 2022, as one of the top five NFL defenses who improved the most, if Staley wants to be here in 2024.
4. Baltimore Ravens
- 2022 Defensive Improvement: 13%
- Week over week, the Ravens defense improved by 13% in SPBx.
- Roquan Smith was a difference maker.
- Prior to acquiring Smith, the Ravens defense was getting worse week over week by 35%, allowing an SPBx of 0.722.
- After acquiring Smith, the defense completely stabilized at a flat 0% trend change. They averaged 0.480 SPBx, a 33% improvement.
- 2023 Outlook: The Ravens defense is the strength of their team until the offense proves it has integrated their new weapons and learned the new system. It should be expected that they will continue an elite level of play at the start of 2023.
3. Detroit Lions
- 2022 Defensive Improvement: 18%
- Week over week, the Lions defense improved by 18%in SPBx.
- The coaches reportedly made schematic changes to the defense following their 10/2/2022 game.
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- In their first four games, the Lions defense was getting worse week over week by 45%, averaging a league worst 1.13 SPBx.
- Following the reported schematic changes, the Lions defense got better by 12% week over week, and averaged a 0.684 SPBx, a 39% improvement.
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- 2023 Outlook: Whatever changes the Lions made in October worked. Dan Campbell is responsive to the players and to performance data. No doubt he will try to replicate what worked the later part of the season, helping them become one of the top five NFL defenses who improved the most in 2022. Them making the postseason in 2023 depends on it.
2. New Orleans Saints
- 2022 Defensive Improvement: 21%
- Week over week, the Saints defense improved by 21% in SBx.
- It all started with the shutout.
- Prior to 10/30/2022, the Saints defense was getting worse by 60% week over week in SPBx, and was giving up an average SPBx of 0.899.
- Following the 10/30/2022 game, where they shut out the Las Vegas Raiders, the defense got better by 35% in SPBx, and reduced their SPBx to 0.368, a 59% improvement.
- 2023 Outlook: The Saints defense had an elite finish to the 2022 season. With stabilization among its coaching staff, and a likely improved offense, there is no reason to not expect them to start 2023 as an elite unit.
1. Cleveland Browns
- 2022 Defensive Improvement: 22%
- Week over week, the Browns defense improved by 22% in SPBx.
- The Browns defense aged like fine wine.
- The Browns defense consistently got better throughout the season. Prior to the bye week, they were getting better week over week by 17%. They had an average SPBx of 0.85.
- Following the bye week, their improvement accelerated, and they were getting better week over week by 45%. They had an average SPBx of 0.575, a 32% improvement.
- 2023 Outlook: The defense will need to carry the team until Deshaun Watson proves he is who the Browns thought he was prior to trading for him. That is a lot of pressure. When they were at their best during the final six games of the season, all Watson starts, they went 3-3 and didn’t give up more than 14 points. That is a rough position to be in week in and week out. Can they finish 2023 as one of the top five NFL defenses?
Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings
- Offense still matters more for overall teams success…
- Of the top 16 NFL teams ranked for defensive improvement, 69% had a negative Football Behavior Improvement Index score.
- 62.5% missed the playoffs
- 50% had a losing record
Reminder, this article is only the top five. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the Free Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more.
What Does It All Mean?
In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or deteriorating. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration.
Once we know the rate of improvement, or deterioration, we can begin to tease out the causes for those rates. Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.
Why Is This Valuable?
This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:
- How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
- How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
- How a trend could impact the point spread
- How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend
With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit). Take full advantage by upgrading to a Pigeon Picks Pass today!