With behavior science we can measure when, and how fast, a defense’s performance is regressing as the season progresses, each and every week. In fact, Football Behavior does this at both the overall team level with our proprietary “Football Improvement Index”, as well as focusing on each side of the ball, offense and defense. Below is a list of the worst five NFL defenses ranked by their 2022 regression.
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Here are the worst five defenses ranked by regression who deteriorated the most over the course of the 2022 NFL season, and what it means for them heading into 2023.
Worst Five NFL Defenses Ranked Who Regressed The Most Over 2022
As we go through the list of the worst five NFL defenses ranked by regression, here is a key for reading the charts:
- Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average
- The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.
- Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries
- Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.
- The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.
- Solid Black Line: Celeration trend
- Trending down means a defense was getting better
- Trending up means a defense was getting worse.
Colts defensive regression in 2022
5. Indianapolis Colts
- 2022 Defensive regression: 20%
- Week over week, the Colts got worse by 20% in SPBx.
- A new coach did not help.
- The eight games prior to firing Frank Reich saw a minimal 3% regression rate.
- In the nine games after Jeff Saturday was hired they had a massive 33% regression rate.
- 2023 Outlook: Despite a new head coach in Shane Steichen, the Colts have decided to stick with the same defensive staff led by Gus Bradley. They are chalking up the rapid regression in the second half of the season to overall club dysfunction and believe, with stability, the defense can go back to being an above average unit.
4. Chicago Bears
- 2022 Defensive regression: 20%
- Week over week, the Bears got worse by 20% in SPBx.
- Overall, the Bears were the worst defense in the NFL, and trading Roqian SMith made it worse.
- Prior to trading Smith, the Bears had an 0.691 SPBx.
- After trading Smith, the Bears had a 1.00 SPBx, a 45% increase.
- 2023 Outlook: Matt Eberflus has been an effective defensive coordinator in the past. But being a head coach is different, and his defensive unit was one of the worst five NFL defenses in terms of regression in 2022. They have made key additions in free agency and the draft. The question is if they can replace the obvious value Roquan Smith provided?
Bills defensive regression in 2022
3. Buffalo Bills
- 2022 Defensive regression: 24%
- Week over week, the Bills got worse by 24% in SPBx.
- The Bills defense was likely overrated due to early outlier performances.
- Prior to their Week 7 bye week, the Bills defense had three performances of 0.4 SPBx, 0.3 SPBx and 0.085 SPBx, which brought their season average way down.
- After the bye week, they stabilized substantially, and had an increase in average SBPx from 0.361 to 0.667, an 85% increase.
- 2023 Outlook: The Bills have a good defense, but they are likely closer to who they were following their bye week, than who they were before it, which is a middle of the pack defense. It is likely we see more of that in 2023.
Broncos defensive regression in 2022
2. Denver Broncos
- 2022 Defensive regression: 26%
- Week over week, the Broncos got worse by 26% in SPBx.
- For all of the talk about Russell Wilson and the offense, the defense was a major problem as the season moved along.
- Prior to the bye week, the Broncos defense was one of the league’s elite units, with a 0.5 SPBx.
- Following the bye week their regression rate nearly doubled to 49% for the final nine games, just as the offense was beginning to improve.
- 2023 Outlook: The Broncos have handed Sean Payton a lot to fix in his first year. Much of the focus is justifiably on the offense led by Russell Wilson. But the defense trended very much in the wrong direction, making them one of the worst five NFL defenses in 2022. With a new system and environment, expect growing pains early on in 2023 before it gets turned around.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2022 Defensive regression: 37%
- Week over week, the Buccaneers defense got worse by 37% in SPBx.
- It started great, then ended horribly.
- Week 1 the Bucs 0.11 SPBx.
- Five of their final six games had a 0.9 SPBx or higher, with two games above 1.0 SPBx.
- 2023 Outlook: The Bucs season was a failure in every way, yes, including making the playoffs. Brady bailed and the defense failed. They are in full rebuild mode and because they made the postseason with a losing record, did not get a high draft pick to replace Brady or other key players, and they get a division champions schedule in a year they are rebuilding. It is difficult to expect anything positive from the Bucs in 2023 and would not be surprised if they again were one of the worst five NFL defenses.
Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings
- After looking at the worst NFL defenses ranked by regression, we can conclude that offense still matters more for overall team success…
- Of the bottom 16 NFL teams ranked for defensive improvement, 62.5% had a positive Football Behavior Improvement Index score.
- 50% had a winning record
- 44% made the playoffs
Reminder, this article is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the FREE Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more
What Does It All Mean?
In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or regressing. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration.
Once we know the rate of improvement, or regression, we can begin to tease out the causes for those rates. Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.
Why Is This Valuable?
This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:
- How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
- How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
- How a trend could impact the point spread
- How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend
- With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)