Top Five NFL Teams Who Improved The Most

The Football Behavior Improvement Index (FBxII) tracks the overall improvement of the entire team, taking into account both sides of the ball. By using a weighted combination of celeration rates, bounce rates, and behavior data, we are able to determine how the entire team is progressing, or regressing, throughout the course of an entire NFL season. Here are the top five NFL teams who improved the most throughout 2022, and what that could look like for 2023.

Top Five NFL Teams Based On 2022 Improvement

The Football Behavior Improvement Index is on a scale from 20 to -20.

An index score of 20 indicates a 100% improvement over a given period of time, in this case the 2022 NFL season.
An index score of -20 would indicate a 100% regression.
Following that logic, 10 would be 50% improvement, -10 would be 50% regression.
An index score of 0 would be no improvement or regression, but simply that a team was stable and consistent from start to finish.

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5. Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 FBxII Score: 10.42

Over the course of the 2022 NFL season the Jaguars improved by 52.625%.
Defense improved by 5% week over week, including playoffs, in SPBx.
Offense improved by 3% week over week, including playoffs, in SBx.

2023 Outlook: It is safe to call the Jaguars a team on the rise.

They made it to the divisional round of the playoffs and were one of only five teams to improve on both sides of the ball during the season.
Coach Doug Peterson has star quarterback Trevor Lawrence on the right track in his development and enters 2023 with improved weapons like Calvin Ridley.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

2022 FBxII Score: 10.6

Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Bengals improved by 53%
Defense improved by 8% week over week, including playoffs in SPBx
Offense improved by 4% week over week, including playoffs in SBx.

2023 Outlook: For the bengals, the focus immediately goes to Joe Burrow and the offense, but should it?

He has established himself as a top tier quarterback.
However, it is the defense that carries the team to victories and that unit shows no signs of letting up, as the offense also continues to improve.
The Bengals will continue to be AFC championship contenders.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

2022 FBxII Score: 10.72

Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Chargers improved by 53.625%
Defense improved by 13% week over week, including the playoffs, in SPBx.
- Environmental Context: Index score is helped by a defensive performance of 0.11 SPBx in the last quarter of the season, which was an extreme outlier.
- Removing the outlier would move them to a ranking of 6th in the FBxII.
Offense improved by 2% week over week, including the playoffs, in SBx

2023 Outlook: The Chargers are likely entering the final year for head coach Brandon Staley to stick around if further improvement does not continue.

The defense got better, but was aided by an outlier against the woeful Colts.
Justin Herbert is in need of a new contract and they basically squandered his relatively cheap rookie contract.
The offense barely improved and was middle of the pack in 2022.
Don’t be surprised if this team actually regresses in 2023.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 FBxII Score: 11.28

Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Steelers improved by ~56.25%.
Defense improved by 13% week over week in SPBx.
Offense improved by 12% week over week in SBx.

2023 Outlook: The Steelers may surprise some people in 2023.

Don’t underestimate the impact of the TJ Watt injury. Without him, they were giving up 0.22 more points per minute.
That equates to roughly seven points in a Steelers game, based on their opponents average time of possession.
That would have potentially flipped three early season games to victories, all else being equal, and we’re talking about them as a 2022 playoff team.
If they can get nominal improvement from Kenny Pickett, and a healthy defense, they could be a sleeper for 2023.

1. Detroit Lions

2022 FBxII Score: 11.52

Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Lions improved by 57.5%.
Defense improved by 18% week over week in SPBx.
Offense improved by 10% week over week in SBx.

2023 Outlook: The Lions are a much talked about team in 2023, and rightfully so.

Often we wondered when Dan Campbell’s notable press conferences and tough talk would match the product on the field. Well, it has.
The Lions ended 2022 as a good football team on the rise.
Much like the previous team on this list in Pittsburgh, I would not be surprised to see this team make the playoffs in 2023, and become a difficult out while also being one of the top five NFL teams in their 2023 improvement.

Included in the newsletter:

Weekly behavioral analysis of every team’s performance.
Primetime Game Picks every week.
Primetime Game final score projections every week.
FBx Risk assessments for every team, every game, updated weekly.
Custom charts for primetime games, showing each competing team’s season progress.

Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings:

Of the NFL teams ranked in the top 10 of the FBxII:

80% had a winning record
60% made it to the playoffs
Combined for a 57% winning percentage

Of the NFL teams ranked in the top 5 of the FBxII:

100% had a winning record
60% made it to the playoffs
Combined for a 58.5% winning percentage

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Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
How a trend could impact the point spread
How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)